The Possibility of Using the BISAP Scale for Predicting the Development of Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Abstract

Purpose. To study the possibilities of using the BISAP scale for predicting the development of severe acute pancreatitis.

Materials and methods. The study included 243 patients with acute pancreatitis who were hospitalized in the emergency surgery department of the Samarkand branch of the Republican Scientific Center for Emergency Medical Aid, for the period from 2017 to 2020.

BISAP scores were calculated for all cases within 24 hours of the date of contact. The diagnostic effectiveness of the scale was assessed by the area under the ROC-curve.

Results. Statistical analysis of the data obtained showed that the Sensitivity (Sensitivity) of the BISAP scale for early diagnosis of severe acute pancreatitis is 0.417, and the Specificity is 0.957. Further, the positive predictive value (PPV - Positive Prevalence Value) was calculated, which was 0.625, and the negative predictive value (NPV - Negative Prevalence Value), which was 0.947. The area under the ROC curve for assessing the BISAP scale in predicting the development of severe acute pancreatitis was 0.790.

Conclusions. The BISAP score is a simple way to predict the development of severe acute pancreatitis within the first 24 hours after a patient presents. Its advantage is the relative ease of data collection and risk assessment for severe disease. Patients with a BISAP score of 3 or more develop severe acute pancreatitis with a frequency of 41.7%, therefore, these patients need close monitoring and intensive care.