Grains Prices Movement Trend in Ethiopia: Analysis Focused on Thirteen Markets Experiences

Abstract

Ethiopia is among the high grain producers in the horn of Africa, and production has been increasing since 2005. The increase in production, however, does not reflect in market prices. Consumers have been complaining on the rise in food prices. There are also complaints on price variation between markets. This study investigated price change integration between thirteen city markets. The quantitative research approach was applied because it aimed to compare the mean prices’ differences. Data were collected from the central statistics agency database. The finding showed that between 2011 and 2020, the price changes of white maize was 212.11% of the base year price,  while white teff was 205.64%, white barley was 198.44%, and white wheat was 193.70% of the base year price. Overall, the four items price change was 201.96% of the base year.  The white maize price change was higher than white teff, white barley and white wheat, but the white wheat price change was lower compared to others. Overall grains prices were higher at Gambella, followed by Jigjiga, but relatively lower at shashemane. Despite prices variation, there was no significant price change difference between four items. Except for white wheat at the Gambella, there was market integration between thirteen markets. This indicates the improvement of transport facilities and communication technology. It implies that improvement in information movements helped grains transfer from excess to deficit areas which contributed the integration and co-movement of the market prices