Underwater Drones In The Russia–Ukraine War: A Quantitative Analysis Of Impact On Military Strategy Using Defence Sem Model

Abstract

This study employs defence Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to quantitatively assess the strategic impact of low-cost, asymmetrical maritime drone warfare during the 2022–2024 Russia–Ukraine War. Specifically, we investigate the mediating role of Asymmetric Deterrence (L_Deter​) on the relationship between Uncrewed Underwater Vehicle (UUV) Operational Effectiveness (L_Eff​) and the observable Military Strategy Shift (L_Shift​) by the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Using time-series data derived from Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) and expert elicitation across eight manifest variables (cost-efficiency ratio, fleet redeployment percentage), the analysis tests the hypothesis that high operational effectiveness in UUV attacks compels a measurable, high-cost doctrinal and strategic adaptation by the adversary. The findings demonstrate a strong, significant path coefficient (β=0.78, p<0.001) linking Asymmetric Deterrence to the Strategy Shift, providing quantitative support for the thesis that autonomous, low-cost systems can fundamentally destabilise established naval power balances. This research offers a novel methodological framework for analysing technology-driven changes in modern military doctrine.