To study the impacts of climate change on precipitation of Barak river basin

Abstract

In the present study, impacts of climate change on precipitation and its projection for Barak river basin, Assam, India, has been studied. The study also attempted to compute the  anticipated effects of climate change on precipitation of the study region based on the 5^th IPCC assessment report. Here, statistical downscaling model(SDSM) is used as to downscale the course climatic variables derived from the CanESM2 dataset into finer resolution. Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) such as RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are used for developing climate projections. Several statistical parameters are used to analyze the projected climate scenarios. The present study revealed that the study region is anticipated to have less precipitation in the future as observed in the all RCPs analysis. Compared to the observed precipitation for 2006-2013, the RCP2.6 shown better performance than other RCPs in simulating precipitation. Trend analysis indicated an increasing trend in observed precipitation (2078-2013) and a decreasing trends in simulated precipitation (2014-2100). Sen's slope test indicated a maximum change rate of precipitation as 0.02 mm/year (RCP8.5) and a minimum change rate as 0.006 mm/year (RCP2.6). The present study has also shown some evidence that the precipitation of the study area may seriously be affected due to changes in climate in the coming future. Findings of present study are expected to be useful in managing water and other resources of the region of Barak river basin.