How Does the Interest Rate Impact the Bank Loans in the Albanian Economy?

Abstract

Positive or negative changes in interest rates and their correlation with consumption and in general with the well-being of households is a very current topic and equally important for the economy of a country which have a direct impact on its development. Interest rates are one of the most important channels of monetary policy transmission. The operation of this transmission channel depends heavily on the macroeconomic conditions and financial structures of the country.The main problem lies in the high interest rate margins due to many factors such as: informal economy, inability of Central Banks to inject liquidity, weaknesses in the quality of financial reporting of businesses, non-performing loans, etc. High level of margin of interest interest rates is an indicator of inefficiency, excessive risk taking and lack of competition.

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between the interest rate of bank loans and some macroeconomic and banking factors by using a multiple linear regression where the interest rate of bank loans is taken as a dependent variable. The model is constructed using the method of least squares, for three-month time series for the period 2005-2020. The final model, regardless of the breakpoints, expresses the fair relationship between the credit rate and the deposit rate, as well as the oblique relationship of the explanatory variable with imports and the unemployment rate. The final model, taking into account the breakpoints, expresses the fair relationship between the credit rate and the deposit rate, as well as the backward relationship to imports. As the change in the interest rate may change the market value of bank assets and liabilities in various amounts, banks need to carefully review interest rates and not be interested only in earnings.