Forecasting Groundnut Production With Arima and A Neural Network Approach

Abstract

The king of oilseeds is groundnut. Groundnut is the world's most widely produced oilseed, and India's second-largest oilseed. In 2020, the Indian agriculture sector will account for 15.4 percent of India's GDP and employ 41.49 percent of the country's workers. Because groundnut prices are prone to fluctuating swiftly and unpredictably, farmers require a realistic forecasting of harvest season prices in order to choose the amount of groundnut acreage to plant. The study employed time series data from Tamilnadu that spanned the years 2003 to 2018. The goal of the research is to find the best ARIMA model for fitting and forecasting groundnut production in Tamilnadu. Using ARIMA and Neural Network Approach using R software, certain inferences about the anticipated production of groundnut crop are drawn based on the obtained data.